Many say that we are on the verge of a monumental shift in political change. Others say it's more of the same, just a different political party. And still many more are fed up with the game of politics. Welcome to mid-term elections, where up-and-comers face off against incumbents, and the voter turnout is lower than that of presidential elections. So, what's different now? Why get excited this year?
The reasons are three-fold in this case. Before you start calling me out on trinities and numerology, let me at least list them out. The three reasons happen to be quite relevant.
First, our President. Barack Obama, the man who promised change, did follow through on that promise. From the major bailouts of General Motors and Chrysler, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and many other banks, in which all of these companies had major financial and corruption issues; to the stimulus bill that has shown little effect compared to what was promised, to the unpopular (a 65% disapproval rating by some estimates) Healthcare bill that was rushed through Congress by congressional Democrats and Obama's urging, the President has increased the power of the Federal government to control approximately one sixth of the economy. Many in talk radio, the internet, and even in your own grocery store have shown such dissatisfaction with Obama's policies and actions, that his approval rating is nearing 30 percent only two years into his first term.
Secondly, Congress. From Harry Reid's apparent disregard of his duties as a congressman of Nevada and it's economy, to Nancy Pelosi being the cheerleader for the Democratic Party, to the lock-step actions that the majority of the Democrat-controlled Congress has made in unison to President Obama's administration, it is little wonder that Congress's current approval ratings have been under 20%. That's less than one of of five people who think Congress has done an acceptable job.
Last, the wild card in this equation: the Tea Party. Its founding can be traced to the middle of 2009, as a result of the passing of Obama's stimulus bill. Today, it has become a considerable political force of over ten million people, and shows signs of growing further. Vehemently opposed to the changes that President Obama's administration has enacted so far, the message that the Tea Party rallies around is an interpretation of a return to the principles that founded the United States: fiscal responsibility, traditional family values, an adherence to an exacting interpretation of the Bill of Rights, constant supervision of the Federal government, and a shrinking of the Federal government's power to its bare minimum, with state governments taking care of most issues. With three candidates of their own in the running at key states, the Tea Party is in the throes of becoming either a major political power, or merely a large minority group that the Republican party will reach out to for votes.
But enough of my political ranting. Many want to know who will be elected Governor/Senator/Congressman/etc., or have their hopes validated in whom they voted for or against. Living in California, I'm narrowing my focus to three heated races.
For Governor: Jerry Brown vs. Meg Whitman. Up to October, the race was heated, but with the scandal around Whitman's firing of a hired housekeeper whose status as a legal immigrant was called into question, Whitman's actions showed signs of ruthlessness, putting off voters, and resulting in Jerry Brown expecting a 44% turnout, while Whitman is expected to only get a 32% turnout. Adding to this the negative ads that Whitman has failed to quash quickly, as well as the state's irritation with Schwartzenegger, a Republican governor, and I expect Brown to win this race.
For Senator: Carly Fiorina vs. Barbara Boxer. This race will be the one to watch, as both candidates have been getting effective punches in on the other with every ad they've released. I personally feel that Fiorina may come out on top due to a desire for new blood, but that's just my interpretation. With the margin of error, Boxer only leads Fiorina by 2% in many polls, which means that this race could go either way.
For Congress: Dan Lungren vs Ami Bera. From my perspective, a candidate with little to no background in business or politics will have no chance in getting elected, although this was proven wrong with Barack Obama getting elected as president. However, Ami is not Obama, and does not have the campaign or oratory prowess that got Obama his position. Adding to this is that Lungren has laid the floor with Bera in regards to ad campaigns, and most would see this bout going to Lungren, even with his flings with ethics violations.
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